Russia’s ‘Nuclear Deterrence Fundamentals 2020’
Johnson’s Russia List (JRL) recently highlighted an important statement of Russia’s new “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Policy”. This document was released by Moscow in June 2020 and, as the analysis points out, such publication - including an easily accessible English translation - marks a departure from previous years.
JRL asks: “One immediate question is whether the idea of using nuclear weapons in a regional conflict as part of an ‘escalation for de-escalation’ strategy still exists in Russia’s military planning.” The answer? “Yes, and no: the West and Russia have different interpretations of this central concept ... The West tends to associate the notion with the threat of, say, attacking the Baltic states, but Russia sees it as nuclear-based coercion that prevents NATO from defending these allies ... Meanwhile, there are no credible signs that Russia is planning to attack the Baltics, especially with any hint of nuclear weapons, which would open direct conflict with NATO.”
The open publication of Russia’s nuclear posture should serve to clarify any confusion about Russia’s intentions with regard to this strategy, which was adopted in response to the “Serbian scenario” at the end of the 1990s, when NATO intervened directly in Europe.
The bad news from this document is that Russia has codified its nuclear posture response to the changing nuclear landscape in Europe by issuing a number of “red lines” and a lower threshold for nuclear use. For instance, “the policy says that only ‘reliable’ information ... is needed about the launch of any ballistic missile toward Russia for there to be a potential response. This undermines the future deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles in Europe and missiles connected with the Aegis offshore missile defence system - all of which Russia officially calls offensive infrastructure.”
This posture is a clear response to Trump’s sabotage of the INF Treaty and threats to station a new generation of nuclear weapons in Europe. ‘Every action has a reaction’ and Trump’s bonfire of treaties and international norms has made the world a much more dangerous place.